Weekly Technical and Trade Outlook – EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Technical Outlook

Last updated at February 28, 2022 00:05GMT.

Daily trend chart

Down

Daily indicators

Fall

21 HR EMA

1.1232

55 HR EMA

1.1238

Trend hourly chart

Next to

Time indicators

Rising

13 HR RSI

64

IMD 2 p.m.

+ve

Daily analysis

Restless consolidation to continue.

Resistance

1.1366 - Last Tuesday's high.
1.1317 - Last Wednesday morning European low (now resolved).
1.1281 - Prev. Low Feb (14, now res).

Support

1.1128 - Asian high from last Friday (now sup).
1.1167 - Last Friday's low.
1.1107 - Last Thur's new 20-month low.

EUR/USD - 1.1269. Although the Euro remained down last week and fell to a new 20-month low at 1.1107 Thur on the news of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the price has pared its recent losses and is next rebounded to 1.1274 (NY) on Friday.

Overall, despite the long-term Euro FM 2017 upward movement near the 14-year low of 1.0341 to a new 3-year high of 1.2555 in mid-February 2018, the decline to nearly 3-year low of 1.0637 (Mar 2020) signals that the correction has ended. Although the Euro staged a rally towards a nearly 33-month high of 1.2349 at the start of January 2021, the subsequent sell-off at 1.1705 (March) signals that the top has been reached. Euro breakout at 1.1705n then weakness to new 20-month low at 1.1122 in January then 1.1107 last week would put pressure on price to 1.0964 (80.9% r FM 1.0637). That said, Fri's rebound at 1.1274 on temperature. the low is in place, but only a daily close from 1.1395 would risk a stronger gain to 1.1495 later next month b4 prospect of another pullback.

Today, Friday's rally FM 1.1167 (Europe) to 1.1274 in New York on the return of risk sentiment due to the rebound in global equities signals a temp. Low reached at 1.1107, as long as 1.1300/10 holds, consolidation with bearish bias remains, below 1.1200/05 indicates intraday high reached, 1.1267. Abv 1.1300, 1.1345/50 later.